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Stock Market Crashes: Predictable and Unpredictable and What to Do About Them

為了解決Nasdaq Futures的問題，作者Ziemba, William T. (EDT)/ Lleo, Sebastien (EDT)/ Zhitlukhin, Mik 這樣論述：

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. T

he focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in

predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates.

When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent

plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline prediction

s over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models

are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett’s value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby’s stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small

cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017.

We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&

amp;P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership

prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

Nasdaq Futures進入發燒排行的影片

外匯順勢與逆勢交易策略之研究

為了解決Nasdaq Futures的問題，作者杜心怡 這樣論述：

本文的主要動機源於外匯市場的市場效率和理性預期仍然存在許多懷疑，即市場效率測試的結果通常是模棱兩可的，因為研究人員無法辨別市場效率的拒絕是由於非理性、預期回報的錯誤指定還是風險溢酬。時間序列模型運用於預測金融資產價格報酬率方面，是否能獲得超額報酬率並沒有定論，所以，基於以上的研究，本文的研究目的包含驗證外匯市場效率市場假說是否成立。並且使用移動平均法(Moving Average, MA)，並且比較使用移動平均法、變量移動平均法(Variable-Length Moving Average, VMA)以及區間交易法(Trading Range Breakout, TRB)等方法與買入持有策略

的投資績效。實證結果顯示外匯市場效率市場假說成立，另外，無論在長期或短期分析，技術分析之工具在特定時機點之操作策略，能獲得優於與買入持有策略的投資績效。

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable and Unpredictable and What to Do About Them

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為了解決Nasdaq Futures的問題，作者Ziemba, William T. (EDT)/ Lleo, Sebastien (EDT)/ Zhitlukhin, Mik 這樣論述：

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The

focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in pr

edicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When i

nterest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus d

eclines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over

a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are cal

l option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dom

inance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We stu

dy small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 g

raphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the

US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

實施盤中零股交易制度對股票流動性與波動性的影響

為了解決Nasdaq Futures的問題，作者陳緯寧 這樣論述：

台灣證券交易所為活絡資本市場，提升證券市場競爭力與國際接軌，期能提高小資族群與年輕族群投入資本市場之意願，修訂上市股票零股交易制度，自2020年10月26日推出盤中零股交易新制度，原盤後零股交易仍維持運作，以利提升零股交易成交機率與便利性。我們以流動性及波動性來衡量市場交易品質，以制度實施前一天股票收盤價超過一百元(含)以上者當作選樣標準，擷取每日交易所產生的日報酬率和交易量、交易金額、週轉率與股價報酬率標準差等日資料進行分析，針對盤中零股交易制度改變對市場流動性及波動性的影響進行研究探討。實證結果顯示，在事件日前後各5個交易日，其成交量變動與成交值變動顯著為正，顯示開放盤中零股交易在短期內

的確可以提升高價股的流動性。另事件日後五日的報酬率顯著優於事件日前五日，表示投資人若在實施開放盤中零股交易之前購入高價股票，平均而言是有獲利機會的，惟事件日後3個月以上的流動性指標則無顯著變化，波動性則顯著變小。